EDITORIAL | The Forum

Minister of Agriculture Roza Mbilizi is right to worry about farmers. With tobacco prices sliding and nearly all bales reportedly being rejected on opening day, growers are once again staring at a difficult season. Protecting them from exploitation is a noble instinct. But good intentions do not always make good policy.

Government must resist the urge to put its thumb on the scale.

The fundamentals are hard to ignore. Malawi has produced about 197 million kilograms of tobacco against a demand of roughly 170 million. That gap tells its own story. When supply outstrips demand, prices fall. It is not pleasant, but it is how markets work. Attempting to strong-arm buyers into paying above what the market can sustain risks distorting the system further. It may even drive buyers away.

This might sound harsh, but it raises an uncomfortable question: what did the government do to prevent yet another surplus? This is not new. The same glut played out last year. Tobacco, once Malawi’s reliable cash cow, has been losing ground for years amid shifting global demand and anti-smoking pressures. Yet production continues to surge, largely unchecked.

There is a deeper policy contradiction at play. In many developing countries, governments support farmers with inputs and subsidies, but stop short of managing output or guaranteeing markets. In contrast, developed economies are often the same ones that discourage subsidies elsewhere while protecting their farmers through structured support systems, including buying excess produce or compensating farmers to stabilize incomes against market volatility.

Malawi, however, appears stuck in between: encouraging production without ensuring sustainable demand.

The result is predictable. Too many growers chasing too few buyers. Government then steps in, not with a long-term plan, but with warnings and pressure directed at buyers who have abundant alternatives.

It is time for a more disciplined approach. Malawi does not need every “Jim and Jack” growing tobacco. Production must be aligned with realistic demand projections. That means enforcing quotas, strengthening market intelligence, and seriously accelerating diversification into other crops and value addition.

Farmers deserve protection but not false assurances. A functioning market, guided by clear policy and credible planning, will serve them better than reactive interventions.

Until then, the country risks repeating this cycle: surplus, falling prices, and last-minute attempts to manage a problem that should have been prevented.

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