By The Forum

There’s no doubt the IPOR poll has caused serious angst, especially among supporters of the governing Malawi Congress Party (MCP). But what’s more fascinating than the numbers themselves is how some people, clearly unfamiliar with how opinion polls are conducted, are lining up to discredit the findings with hollow arguments dressed in feigned expertise.

Let’s be honest. The IPOR survey has touched a nerve. And when people feel cornered, they react. But there’s a difference between critiquing methodology and lashing out simply because the numbers don’t favour your side. Some critics have questioned the timing of the poll’s release, suggesting it came conveniently after the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) unveiled its presidential ticket, which didn’t include UTM party.

That raises a question: Are they upset that DPP is leading, or are they bothered that UTM wasn’t factored into DPP’s comeback narrative? Or is this really about a deep-rooted belief that the MCP deserves to be ahead, despite five years of mixed performance at the helm?

Here’s the thing: both positions can exist at once. You can believe the MCP has underperformed and still wish for them to bounce back. But in the end, it’s the voters’ opinions that shape the electoral landscape, not party loyalists shouting over each other online.

What gets lost in the noise is this: the poll is not a prediction, it’s a snapshot of public opinion taken in a specific period. People were canvassed. They gave their views. And those views weren’t filtered through party headquarters.

The real issue now is how parties, especially the MCP, respond. With less than 50 days until the September 16 election, MCP has yet to announce its presidential running mate. Instead of speculating about who should or shouldn’t be on the ticket with President Lazarus Chakwera, let’s focus our attention on the choice when it’s finally made, we will assess it on merit.

Until then, one thing is clear: the IPOR poll has disrupted the status quo. Whether you believe it or not, it’s served its purpose, and that is, started a conversation. The question is whether parties will engage constructively with what it reveals or retreat into denial and conspiracy.

Because in politics, outrage is easy. Strategy wins elections.